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Monday 14 January 2008

KEEP WATCHING IRAN IN 2008

Michael Hirsch of Newsweek writes on the magazine’s website that George W. Bush, America’s great ‘thinker-president’ (to quote Tariq Ali), has now fully rejected his own intelligence community’s National Intelligence Estimate on nuclear-weapon-free Iran while on a visit to, of all places, nuclear-weapon-armed Israel. Dubya now sees his own ‘intelligence’ as greater and deeper than the collected and considered ‘high-confidence’ judgements of the (hundreds of) spies, scientists, analysts and researchers who make up the multi-billion-dollar U.S. intelligence community.

As the Newsweek piece reveals:

“In public, President Bush has been careful to reassure Israel and other allies that he still sees Iran, as a threat, while not disavowing his administration's recent National Intelligence Estimate. That NIE, made public Dec. 3, embarrassed the administration by concluding that Tehran had halted its weapons program in 2003, which seemed to undermine years of bellicose rhetoric from Bush and other senior officials about Iran's nuclear ambitions. But in private conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert last week, the president all but disowned the document, said a senior administration official who accompanied Bush on his six-nation trip to the Mideast. "He told the Israelis that he can't control what the intelligence community says, but that [the NIE's] conclusions don't reflect his own views" about Iran's nuclear-weapons program, said the official, who would discuss intelligence matters only on the condition of anonymity.

“Bush's behind-the-scenes assurances may help to quiet a rising chorus of voices inside Israel's defense community that are calling for unilateral military action against Iran. Olmert, asked by NEWSWEEK after Bush's departure on Friday whether he felt reassured, replied: "I am very happy." A source close to the Israeli leader said Bush first briefed Olmert about the intelligence estimate a week before it was published, during talks in Washington that preceded the Annapolis peace conference in November. According to the source, who also refused to be named discussing the issue, Bush told Olmert he was uncomfortable with the findings and seemed almost apologetic.”

The NIE’s conclusions “don’t reflect his own views” because Bush’s views are always based on fantasy and prejudice, rather than on facts and figures. I mean, when was the last time Bush read a book on Iran? Or a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (from cover to cover)? Or even a newspaper report on Iran’s nuclear activities? Why should we take seriously the “views” of a leader who pays so little attention to facts, figures, numbers, details, policies, reports, etc, and who prefers to go with his gut over his (miniscule) brain?

As the veteran Bush-watcher Jacob Weisberg writes in his excellent and perhaps definitive article – "How Bush Chose Stupidity?" – the current president takes great pride in his anti-intellectualism:

“A fourth and final quality of Bush's mind is that it does not think. The president can't tolerate debate about issues. Offered an option, he makes up his mind quickly and never reconsiders. At an elementary school, a child once asked him whether it was hard to make decisions as president. "Most of the decisions come pretty easily for me, to be frank with you." By leaping to conclusions based on what he "believes," Bush avoids contemplating even the most obvious basic contradictions: between his policy of tax cuts and reducing the deficit; between his call for a humble foreign policy based on alliances and his unilateral assertion of American power; between his support for in-vitro fertilization (which destroys embryos) and his opposition to fetal stem-cell research (because it destroys embryos).”

So, Bush “believes” Iran is a threat, no matter what the evidence (or lack of) suggests. Just as he ‘believed’ Iraq had WMDs, and he ‘believed’ Saddam had a relationship with al Qaeda.

(On a side note, am I the only one who finds the media’s silence, as well as President Bush’s silence, on Israel’s real nukes versus Iran’s phantom nukes truly disgusting, dishonest and depressing?)

Keep watching Iran in 2008 (this blog will be). Dubya still has a year left in office and a year is a long time in international relations.

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